The Sandhills Metropolitan Planning Organization (SMPO) spent much of its Dec. 3 meeting reviewing population and employment projections that will shape transportation planning through 2055. The discussion centered on how growth assumptions will guide future road projects, model development, and funding decisions.
Discussion on Growth and Employment
The board reviewed census data, local trends, and potential growth scenarios ranging from .5 to 2 percent annually. Members said the projections must be finalized in early 2026 so they can be incorporated into the travel demand model that will support the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, due in December 2026. That model will inform planning for major projects, including the Carthage Bypass.
“Population and employment projections are a key input in a Metropolitan Transportation Plan,” explained Scott Walston, SMPO director. “They help anticipate future travel demand and guide the design of transportation systems that will serve the MPO effectively over the next 20–30 years. They help determine where system expansions are needed and justify investments by showing where benefits will be greatest.”
Accordingly, employment data was also examined alongside population estimates. Meeting participants pointed to inconsistencies and gaps in job reporting and said employment growth must be evaluated because of its direct link to transportation needs.
The SMPO is using census counts from 2010 and 2022, local estimates for 2025 and 2030, and trend lines extending to 2055 based on those figures. It was stressed, however, that all projections are subject to change as demographics, housing availability, and economic conditions shift.
Transit Feasibility Study Proposal
The SMPO also reviewed a draft scope of work for a potential transit feasibility study, which would evaluate options for introducing or expanding public transportation across the planning region. The study would consider demand-response services, fixed routes, and regional connections to improve mobility for residents, workers, and visitors.
Objectives outlined in the draft include “assessing travel patterns, identifying service models, estimating ridership and costs, and outlining possible funding sources.”
The study area would cover all municipalities and unincorporated areas within the SMPO boundary: the Village of Pinehurst, Town of Southern Pines, Town of Aberdeen, Village of Whispering Pines, Town of Pinebluff, Town of Taylortown, and portions of unincorporated Moore County.
Special attention would be given to major employment centers, medical facilities, schools, downtowns, and transportation corridors.
The estimated project duration is nine to 12 months, with work expected to begin in early fiscal year 2026 and conclude in spring 2027. The projected cost is about $100,000.
Deliverables would include an existing conditions summary, a technical memorandum outlining service alternatives, draft and final reports, and presentation materials for MPO committees.
The MPO is expected to continue refining both the population projections and the study proposal ahead of upcoming planning deadlines.
Abegail Murphy | Assistant Editor
Article written by Sandhills Sentinel Assistant Editor Abegail Murphy. Abegail has been writing for Sandhills Sentinel since 2021.
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